Imagine this: the cryptography protecting your customers’ identities today could be obsolete tomorrow.
Not because of poor implementation but because a machine powerful enough to tear through RSA and ECC in minutes is no longer science fiction. It’s quantum computing, and it’s closer than most IAM leaders are prepared for.
What’s Really Happening
- Only 4% of organisations have a defined quantum strategy, while adversaries are already running “harvest now, decrypt later” campaigns.
- The PQC market is projected to grow from $1.15B (2024) to $7.82B (2030) at a staggering 37.6% CAGR.
Adoption is being driven most urgently in finance, healthcare, government, and telecom, sectors where identity breaches have the highest regulatory and reputational impact.
- In India’s BFSI sector, quantum readiness scores barely 2.4/5, yet 57.5% of CISOs believe they’ll face substantial quantum threats within 3 years.
Why IAM is exposed: Identity systems sit right in the blast zone. PKI underpins certificates and trust anchors; digital signatures validate transactions and user identities; OIDC tokens and JWTs protect authentication and federation. Quantum computing threatens to break all of these at once, meaning forged tokens, spoofed identities, and invalidated trust chains could collapse IAM frameworks almost overnight.
The Business Lens
For enterprises, this isn’t just a security risk; it’s a business continuity risk.
- A single compromised identity store could unravel customer trust, regulatory compliance, and enterprise value.
- Early movers who invest in crypto-agility and align with NIST-approved PQC standards will position identity as a business enabler, not a liability.
- The ROI isn’t just in avoiding breaches, it’s in sustaining digital trust when competitors are scrambling to retrofit their IAM systems.
The Standards & Transition Path
The post-quantum era isn’t about ripping everything out overnight, it’s about preparing now.
- In 2024, NIST finalised its first PQC standards, including CRYSTALS-Kyber (encryption) and Dilithium (signatures).
- In March 2025, HQC was added as another key encapsulation option, with full standardisation expected by 2027.
- Standards bodies like the OpenID Foundation are already exploring PQC readiness for OIDC and JWT, while protocols like Signal’s PQXDH are combining classical and post-quantum cryptography in production.
What IAM Leaders Should Do Today
- Evaluate Exposure → Go beyond a high-level risk view. Map which IAM components, PKI, certificates, tokens, authentication flows, privileged keys depend on RSA or ECC today. This helps you prioritise what needs migration first.
- Adopt PQC Standards → Begin pilot migrations with NIST-approved algorithms (CRYSTALS-Kyber, Dilithium, HQC). Waiting for “perfect timing” only delays resilience.
- Enable Crypto-Agility → Crypto-agility means building the capability to rapidly switch cryptographic algorithms without disrupting business operations. This ensures you don’t get locked into a single algorithm or vendor dependency as standards evolve.
- Run Pilot Programs → Start small, in lower-risk environments like TLS or OpenSSH, mirroring early adopters (~0.03% today). Pilots help teams identify integration hurdles before enterprise-wide rollout.
- Educate & Elevate → Brief boards and executives in business terms, not just technical jargon. Train IAM and security teams, and actively collaborate with industry and standards groups (NIST, OpenID, IETF) to shape the future of post-quantum identity.
Executive Insights (for C-Suite/Boards)
Beyond the Basics: What Leaders Often Miss
- Regulatory Momentum → Regulators in Europe, the U.S., and India are signaling that post-quantum readiness will become part of compliance frameworks in the next few years. Waiting until it’s mandated could leave your organisation scrambling.
- Legacy Lock-In → Many IAM systems are hard-wired to RSA and ECC. Without modular upgrades and crypto-agility, migrating later may mean costly rip-and-replace programs.
- Talent & Skills Gap → PQC isn’t just about tech; there’s a shortage of professionals who understand both IAM and quantum-safe cryptography. Building awareness and training now will prevent a knowledge crunch later.
- Customer Trust → Beyond risk mitigation, PQC is about preserving confidence. A single breach could erode years of trust, while future-proofed identity systems can actively strengthen digital relationships.
- Competitive Differentiator → Being early in PQC adoption can position your enterprise as a leader in digital trust, much like ISO or SOC certifications became market signals in the past.
The message is clear: post-quantum IAM is not just about technology resilience. It’s about compliance, people, trust, and competitive edge.
The Twist
Here’s the paradox: the quantum threat is both urgent and slow-moving. Urgent, because adversaries are harvesting identity data today. Slow, because full-scale decryption may be years away.
Leaders who wait for the “quantum moment” will already be too late. The winners will be those who quietly upgrade now, while the world still underestimates the risk.
👉 As IAM leaders, the question isn’t if you’ll adapt, but whether you’ll adapt before the headlines catch up to you.
References: TechRadarAccutive Security, The Times of India, Identity Management Institute®OpenID Foundation, Grand View Research, NISTWikipedia, Wikipedia, TechRadarMicrosoft, OpenID Foundation, Wikipedia, Wikipedia, arXiv, MicrosoftOpenID Foundation
